21 Jun 2026 00:57:47

836
AXNT20 KNHC 210457
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Jun 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W from
02N to 15N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 02N to 08N between 23W and 30W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 40W from 01N
to 16N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen along 40W in the immediate vicinity of the wave
axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 63W south
of 19N. Decaying showers and thunderstorms are seen between the
wave axis and the Lesser Antilles.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 81.5W south of 18N. It
is moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. This wave is interacting
with an upper- level low, with scattered moderate convection
occurring S of 20N between 80W and 85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic ocean near 19N16W,
and continues southwestward to 06N25W to 08N37W to 05N44W, where
it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 03N51W. Convection is
described in the Tropical Waves section above.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure ridging stretches westward from the western
Atlantic to across Florida and to the central Gulf, reinforced by
a 1016 mb high in the eastern Gulf. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and the relatively lower pressures over Texas and
northeastern Mexico has induced moderate to fresh SE winds west of
87W, with 3-6 ft seas. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail
along with seas 1 to 4 ft. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring along a surface trough analyzed offshore the Texas
coast.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the NE Gulf.
The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively
lower pressures over Texas and northeastern Mexico will maintain
mostly fresh southerly winds over the western and central Gulf
through late Mon night before diminishing to gentle to moderate
speeds. Slight to moderate seas will be with these winds. Light
winds along with slight seas will be over the eastern Gulf through
Thu night as a new high center becomes situated over the central
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for convection
across the basin.

The subtropical ridge extends north of the area over the western
Atlantic. The pattern between this ridge and tropical waves over
the eastern and western Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong
trade winds across the central Caribbean, where seas are 7-10 ft.
Recent scatterometer data indicated winds near gale-force in the
south-central Caribbean closer to the Colombian coast. Moderate
to fresh trade winds prevail elsewhere, with 5-7 ft seas, except
for gentle SE winds 3-5 ft over the far northwestern Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail north of the area
into next week. The pressure gradient between the high pressure
and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and
moderate to rough seas in the central Caribbean through the
forecast period, with highest winds and seas expected off the
coast of Colombia. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to
rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly well into
the upcoming week. Moderate to fresh winds are expected over much
of the remainder of the Caribbean through the middle portion of
next week. A tropical wave in the far eastern Caribbean will move
through the eastern through late Mon, and across the rest of the
basin through late Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected near the wave. Another tropical wave located over the
western Caribbean is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the waters west of 80W, and quickly moving westward. This
wave will move inland Central America late tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical ridge extends across the entire Atlantic north of
20N, anchored by a 1023 mb high near 27N54W. The pattern is
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas across
much of the Atlantic S of 20N. Gentle breezes prevail north of
20N, with 2-5 ft seas in a broad mix of swell. Upper jet dynamics
are supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms along 30N
between 65W and the SE US Coast. Another area of scattered showers
and thunderstorms is being supported mainly by upper jet dynamics
east and NE of the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak high pressure ridge along
26N will shift slightly south on Sun, and change little through
Thu night as surface troughing lingers near and offshore Florida.
Moderate to fresh trade winds will pulse to strong south of 22N
through Tue, then be at mostly fresh speeds through the rest of
the forecast period.

$$
Adams