24 Jan 2026 13:09:49

000
AXNT20 KNHC 241709
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Jan 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move across
the basin Sunday through early Tuesday. Arctic high pressure of
near 1040 mb will move into Texas Sun night and settle in behind
the front, and is expected to drive strong to near gale-force NW
to N winds across NW and N central portions of the Gulf Sun and
Sun night. Gale conditions are forecast within the offshore
waters of Tampico Sun night into Mon morning, and within the
waters offshore Veracruz on Mon and Mon night. Seas will quickly
build behind the front, with peak seas forecast to 17 ft in the
SW Gulf on Monday.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends
from 05N10W to 01N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from the
equator to 07N between 12W and 30W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

1012 low pressure is centered just south of Houston, TX, near
29N96W. A warm front extends eastward across the northern Gulf to
Cedar Key, FL. Scattered moderate convection is north of 28N
between 90W and 95W. Fresh NE to E winds are north of the front
with 3-5 ft seas. South of the front, gentle to moderate SE winds
prevail with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, an elongated low pressure will form in the NW
Gulf this afternoon and deepen as it tracks NE into Louisiana by
early Sun pulling the warm front N of the area. This will take
place in advance of an arctic front expected to move into the
Texas coastal waters this afternoon. The front will then move SE
across the entire basin Sun through Mon evening. Strong
reinforcing arctic high pressure behind the front is expected to
produce near gale force winds across NW portions of the Gulf Sun
and Sun night, gale conditions over the offshore waters of Tampico
Sun night into Mon morning, and gales over the waters offshore
Veracruz Mon and Mon night. Seas are expected to quickly build
across the basin starting Sun. Conditions will improve quickly
from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front moves SE into the NW
Caribbean. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest
forecasts.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

This morning's scatterometer indicates gentle to moderate trades
across the basin, with 3-6 ft seas. A surface trough is analyzed
just west of the Windward Passage. Arriving E swell from the
tropical Atlantic may bring locally higher seas to the passages
between the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast, broad high pressure over the east central
Atlantic will continue to maintain mostly fresh trades over the
eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic
waters through early next week, while fresh winds offshore of
Colombia pulse to strong speeds at night through Sun, then to near
gale force afterward into midweek. Large E swell over the
Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside through the weekend, but
remain around 8 ft through Tue night. A cold front will enter the
NW Caribbean late Mon and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras by late Tue into Wed. Strong northerly winds will
follow the front before gradually diminishing to moderate to
fresh speeds Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The earlier analyzed cold front in the east Atlantic has
dissipated, though lingering N swell with 12-15 ft seas persists
near the Canary Islands. Scatterometer data from earlier this
morning indicates a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds,
from 10N to 25N east of 50W. Seas in this area of winds are 8-10
ft, and reach the Lesser Antilles. A cold front is entering the
far NW waters, with fresh to strong NE winds and building seas
following the front. A surface trough producing a few showers is
across the northern Bahamas. Elsewhere, high pressure and
moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough and ridge will shift
slowly NE through tonight. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will
develop over the NW forecast waters Sun evening through early Mon
in advance of a strong Arctic cold front that is expected to move
offshore northeastern Florida early Mon. Winds to near gale force
will develop just N of the area early on Mon. The front will reach
from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and Straits of Florida Mon
evening, from near 31N56W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Tue
evening, then weaken as it reaches from near 31N51W to 26N60W then
stationary to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Wed afternoon.
Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are expected W of
the front Mon afternoon through Tue afternoon, becoming mostly
fresh NE winds Tue night and Wed within about 180 nm NW of the
frontal boundary. The frontal boundary will become nearly
stationary from near 29N55W to 25N66W and to near 20N70W by late
Thu as another strong cold front moves over the NW forecast
waters.

$$
Mahoney