24 Jan 2026 06:29:05

000
AXNT20 KNHC 241028
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jan 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move across
the basin Sunday through early Tuesday. Arctic high pressure of
near 1040 mb will move into Texas Sun night and settle in behind
the front, and is expected to drive strong to near gale- force NW
to N winds across NW and N central portions of the Gulf Sun and
Sun night. Gale conditions are possible over the offshore waters
of Tampico Sun night into Mon morning, and are likely over the
waters offshore Veracruz on Mon and Mon night. Seas will quickly
build behind the front as well, with rough to very rough seas
expected. Seas look to peak around 16-17 ft in the SW Gulf near
the Veracruz waters on Monday.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08.5N13W, then continues SW to near 06N16W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N16W to 01.5N22W to 02.5N33W to 00N50W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted from 00.5N to 06N between
12W and 28W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 07.5N
between 30W and 49W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A nearly stationary front extends across northern Florida
southwestward across the Florida Big Bend to 27.5N88W and to the
central coast of Texas. Scattered showers are seen near this
boundary east of 90W, while moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds
and seas of 3-5 ft prevail north of the front. Otherwise, a weak
surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Gulf region
supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight seas E of
91W and moderate to fresh SE winds W of 91W, with seas of 2 to 5
ft.

For the forecast, the stationary front will linger through
late this morning before it lifts N as a warm front, ahead of a
strong cold front expected this afternoon. The cold front will
move into the Texas coastal waters this afternoon, then stall
through late Sat night as low pressure forms near the southern
Texas coast and rides NE along the front through Sun. The front
will then move SE across the entire basin Sun through Mon evening.
Strong reinforcing Arctic high pressure behind the front is
expected to produce near gale force winds across NW portions of
the Gulf Sun and Sun night, possible gale conditions over the
offshore waters of Tampico Sun night into Mon morning, and gales
over the waters offshore Veracruz Mon through early Mon night.
Conditions will improve quickly from NW to SE Tue through Wed as
the front moves SE into the NW Caribbean.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to strong
trades over the south-central to SW Caribbean south of 13N due to
the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure ridge
and the Colombian/Panamanian low. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these
winds. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are noted
elsewhere across the eastern and central Caribbean, including the
Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas prevail
across the NW part of the basin. Widely scattered light passing
showers dot much of the NE, W-central and SW portions of the
basin.

For the forecast, broad high pressure centered over the east-
central Atlantic will maintain a modest ridge N of the area to
produce mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central
Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through early
next week, while fresh winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong
speeds at night through Sun, then to near gale force afterward
into midweek. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will
slowly subside through the weekend, but remain around 8 ft through
early next week. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean late
Mon and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras
by late Tue into Wed. Strong northerly winds will follow the front
before gradually diminishing to moderate to fresh speeds Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is analyzed from the Moroccan coast near 26N15W to
25N21W to 25N30W, where it transitions to a shear line that
extends to 31N38W. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are N
of the front and shear line. Very rough seas of 12-16 ft are seen
N of 28N between 20W and 35W. Elsewhere, surface ridging
dominates much of the Atlantic, with fresh to strong trades and
seas of 7-11 ft prevailing across much of the Atlantic S of 25N
and E of 60W. Moderate to fresh trades and 6-8 ft seas are S of
25N between 60W and 70W, with moderate or weaker winds and seas
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends from
near Jacksonville, FL northeastward across the western Atlantic,
while a surface trough is E of this boundary from 31N71W to the
the NW Bahamas. Meanwhile, high pressure is centered across the
east-central Atlantic and extends a broad ridge W-SW to just S of
Bermuda. The trough and ridge will shift slowly NE through Sat
night. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will develop over the NW
forecast waters Sun evening through early Mon in advance of a
strong Arctic cold front that is expected to move offshore
northeastern Florida early Mon. Winds to near gale force will
develop just N of the area early on Mon. The front will reach from
near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and Straits of Florida Mon evening,
from near 31N56W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Tue evening,
then weaken as it reaches from near 31N51W to 26N60W then
stationary to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Wed afternoon. Fresh
to strong northerly winds and rough seas are expected W of the
front Mon afternoon through Tue afternoon, becoming mostly fresh
NE winds Tue night and Wed within about 180 nm NW of the frontal
boundary.

$$
Stripling